000 WTNT80 EGRR 150600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 157.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2014 31.9N 157.9W WEAK 12UTC 15.08.2014 32.5N 157.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2014 33.1N 157.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2014 33.7N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 34.7N 157.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 36.0N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 117.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2014 17.4N 117.4W MODERATE 12UTC 15.08.2014 17.8N 119.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2014 18.3N 122.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2014 18.6N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 19.0N 127.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 19.2N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 19.2N 132.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 18.8N 134.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 18.9N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 19.3N 138.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 20.1N 140.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 35.1N 46.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 35.6N 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2014 36.5N 40.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2014 39.4N 34.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 43.2N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 47.1N 33.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 47.7N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 48.0N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2014 47.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 47.2N 34.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 46.4N 34.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.8N 139.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2014 12.8N 139.9W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2014 12.7N 140.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 13.0N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 13.8N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 14.3N 140.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 15.1N 140.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.4N 141.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.1N 142.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 142.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.5N 142.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 18.2N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 37.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2014 12.9N 37.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 13.1N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2014 14.1N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.1N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 47.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.3N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 18.1N 57.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.2N 114.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.2N 114.7W WEAK 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.8N 117.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 16.8N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 19.0N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 20.1N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 9.5N 102.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2014 9.5N 102.8W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150431