000 WTNT80 EGRR 141800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 158.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2014 31.1N 158.6W WEAK 00UTC 15.08.2014 31.6N 157.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2014 32.0N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2014 32.8N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 33.2N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 34.1N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 35.2N 158.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 115.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2014 17.2N 115.8W STRONG 00UTC 15.08.2014 17.7N 117.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2014 18.0N 120.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2014 18.6N 122.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2014 18.9N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 19.1N 127.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 19.0N 130.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 18.7N 132.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 18.0N 133.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2014 17.4N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 17.0N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 16.7N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.2N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.4N 139.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2014 12.4N 139.8W WEAK 00UTC 15.08.2014 13.4N 138.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2014 13.3N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2014 13.5N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 14.1N 140.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 15.1N 141.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 15.4N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 16.2N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 16.6N 144.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 16.8N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 16.9N 146.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 17.0N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 17.3N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 40.6N 34.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2014 40.6N 34.6W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2014 42.7N 32.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 46.3N 31.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 48.8N 33.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 50.2N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 50.9N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 52.3N 39.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.6N 115.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2014 11.7N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 13.7N 118.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.7N 120.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.5N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.5N 124.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141656