000 WTNT80 EGRR 121800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 28.1N 157.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2014 28.1N 157.1W STRONG 00UTC 13.08.2014 29.0N 157.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2014 30.5N 158.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2014 31.6N 158.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2014 32.6N 156.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2014 34.1N 154.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2014 34.7N 152.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2014 35.2N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 35.5N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 35.5N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 36.0N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.1N 147.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2014 11.0N 147.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2014 11.9N 147.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2014 12.5N 147.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2014 12.7N 147.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2014 12.8N 148.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 12.4N 149.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 12.5N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 13.0N 151.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 13.9N 152.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 14.8N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.2N 137.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2014 11.6N 138.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2014 11.9N 138.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2014 12.7N 138.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2014 13.5N 138.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2014 14.1N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 14.7N 140.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 15.6N 142.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 16.6N 143.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 17.6N 144.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 18.0N 145.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 37.5N 58.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 37.5N 57.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2014 37.2N 56.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2014 36.5N 53.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 36.7N 42.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 36.7N 42.9W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2014 38.5N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 41.8N 35.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 45.7N 32.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 46.0N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 45.9N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 44.3N 34.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121636