000
WTNT80 EGRR 110600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.08.2014

             HURRICANE JULIO      ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 153.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.08.2014  24.9N 153.2W   INTENSE
 12UTC 11.08.2014  26.3N 154.4W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 12.08.2014  27.3N 155.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.08.2014  28.0N 156.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2014  28.9N 157.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2014  29.7N 158.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.08.2014  30.6N 158.5W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 14.08.2014  31.9N 157.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2014  33.6N 154.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.1N  33.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 12.08.2014  15.1N  33.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 13.08.2014  15.5N  36.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2014  15.7N  40.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.08.2014  16.9N  43.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.08.2014  17.1N  47.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2014  17.3N  50.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2014  18.2N  53.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2014  18.6N  56.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  19.5N  60.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.08.2014  21.1N  63.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.1N 148.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.08.2014  12.4N 148.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.08.2014  13.0N 149.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2014  13.4N 149.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2014  13.5N 151.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2014  13.3N 152.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  12.9N 154.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.08.2014  12.7N 156.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N 138.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.08.2014  12.1N 138.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 15.08.2014  12.1N 139.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2014  13.3N 140.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  13.5N 142.6W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.08.2014  14.3N 145.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.0N 123.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.08.2014  15.0N 123.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 17.08.2014  15.8N 123.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.3N 112.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 17.08.2014  17.7N 113.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 110431