000
WTNT80 EGRR 101800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2014

             HURRICANE JULIO      ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 151.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.08.2014  23.2N 151.7W   INTENSE
 00UTC 11.08.2014  24.6N 153.3W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.08.2014  26.0N 154.2W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 12.08.2014  26.5N 155.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.08.2014  27.0N 156.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.08.2014  27.8N 157.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.08.2014  28.2N 158.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.08.2014  29.0N 159.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.08.2014  29.7N 159.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2014  30.3N 159.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2014  30.7N 160.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2014  31.5N 160.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  32.3N 160.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.9N 148.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.08.2014  12.4N 149.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 14.08.2014  12.9N 149.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2014  13.4N 150.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.08.2014  13.2N 152.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2014  12.8N 154.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  12.2N 156.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 139.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.08.2014  11.8N 139.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2014  12.6N 140.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2014  12.7N 142.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2014  13.1N 144.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  13.3N 146.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.7N 119.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.08.2014  13.7N 119.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 15.08.2014  13.8N 121.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2014  15.1N 123.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2014  16.2N 125.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 101625