000
WTNT80 EGRR 100600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.08.2014

             HURRICANE JULIO      ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 149.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.08.2014  21.5N 149.4W   INTENSE
 12UTC 10.08.2014  22.7N 151.6W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.08.2014  24.3N 152.9W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.08.2014  25.3N 153.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.08.2014  26.1N 155.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.08.2014  26.3N 156.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.08.2014  26.7N 157.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2014  27.1N 159.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.08.2014  27.2N 161.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.08.2014  27.2N 162.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2014  27.8N 164.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.08.2014  28.4N 166.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2014  30.0N 168.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.8N 139.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.08.2014  11.8N 139.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 14.08.2014  12.3N 140.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2014  13.0N 142.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.08.2014  13.3N 143.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2014  13.6N 145.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.0N 149.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.08.2014  12.0N 149.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2014  12.8N 149.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.08.2014  12.4N 151.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2014  11.8N 152.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 100443