000
WTNT80 EGRR 071800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2014

             HURRICANE JULIO      ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 135.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.08.2014  16.7N 135.8W    STRONG
 00UTC 08.08.2014  17.2N 138.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2014  17.8N 141.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.08.2014  18.5N 144.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.08.2014  19.3N 147.9W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 10.08.2014  20.2N 150.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 10.08.2014  21.3N 153.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.08.2014  22.8N 156.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.08.2014  23.5N 158.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.08.2014  24.4N 161.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.08.2014  25.1N 164.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.08.2014  25.9N 166.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2014  26.6N 169.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             HURRICANE ISELLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 149.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.08.2014  18.4N 149.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 08.08.2014  19.1N 153.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.08.2014  20.5N 155.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.08.2014  21.0N 159.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.08.2014  21.7N 161.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.08.2014  22.2N 163.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.08.2014  22.6N 165.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.08.2014  23.4N 168.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.08.2014  24.1N 172.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.08.2014  25.1N 175.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.08.2014  26.6N 178.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2014  28.2N 180.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2014  29.6N 179.0E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.5N  76.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.08.2014  33.5N  76.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 12.08.2014  33.6N  76.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.08.2014  33.8N  75.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 33.3N  62.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.08.2014  33.3N  60.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 13.08.2014  32.4N  58.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 071713