000 WTNT80 EGRR 061800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N 64.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2014 39.4N 64.8W WEAK 00UTC 07.08.2014 42.0N 58.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 45.1N 52.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 176.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2014 12.3N 176.6W WEAK 00UTC 07.08.2014 13.2N 179.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2014 14.5N 178.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 15.9N 175.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2014 16.9N 174.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2014 18.7N 174.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2014 22.1N 175.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.08.2014 25.4N 174.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2014 28.2N 172.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2014 30.5N 170.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2014 32.0N 169.4E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2014 32.5N 169.1E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.08.2014 32.8N 168.9E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 143.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2014 16.9N 143.8W INTENSE 00UTC 07.08.2014 17.5N 146.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 18.5N 150.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 19.3N 153.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2014 20.2N 155.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2014 20.9N 160.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.08.2014 21.7N 162.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2014 21.7N 164.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2014 21.8N 166.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2014 22.8N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2014 24.3N 171.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2014 25.5N 174.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2014 26.8N 176.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 129.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2014 14.9N 129.9W MODERATE 00UTC 07.08.2014 15.9N 133.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 16.5N 136.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 17.2N 139.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2014 17.5N 142.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2014 18.5N 145.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2014 18.8N 149.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2014 20.2N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2014 21.3N 154.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2014 23.2N 157.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2014 24.8N 160.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2014 26.5N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2014 28.7N 165.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.7N 78.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.08.2014 33.7N 78.4W MODERATE 00UTC 11.08.2014 34.3N 76.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.08.2014 34.7N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2014 34.8N 75.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2014 34.8N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 34.1N 75.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.08.2014 34.7N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2014 34.8N 75.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2014 34.8N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061625