000 WTNT80 EGRR 021800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 65.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 17.1N 65.5W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 155.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 11.5N 155.3W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2014 10.4N 157.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 9.9N 159.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 10.1N 161.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 10.5N 164.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 11.2N 167.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 12.3N 169.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 14.0N 171.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 15.9N 173.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 17.6N 175.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 19.1N 177.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 20.5N 178.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.08.2014 21.8N 179.3E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY HURRICANE ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 128.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 14.8N 128.7W MODERATE 00UTC 03.08.2014 15.3N 130.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 15.6N 132.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 15.8N 134.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 15.9N 136.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 16.0N 138.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 16.0N 139.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 16.3N 142.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 15.9N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2014 16.4N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2014 17.3N 151.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2014 18.6N 154.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2014 20.4N 157.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.5N 141.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 11.5N 141.7W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2014 12.9N 143.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 13.3N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 13.3N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.2N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.7N 116.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2014 12.1N 117.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 11.8N 119.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 11.5N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 11.6N 124.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 12.4N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2014 13.0N 130.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 13.9N 133.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 14.6N 136.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 15.5N 139.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.08.2014 16.2N 142.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 30.6N 79.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2014 30.6N 79.8W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2014 32.7N 78.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 34.8N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2014 39.2N 68.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 41.8N 62.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 43.8N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2014 45.1N 49.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 45.7N 44.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.08.2014 44.6N 36.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021645