000 WTNT80 EGRR 011800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 58.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.7N 58.1W WEAK 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.9N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 16.2N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 125.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.7N 125.4W MODERATE 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.4N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.0N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 15.4N 131.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 15.8N 132.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 16.1N 134.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 16.0N 136.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 15.8N 138.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 15.5N 139.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 15.4N 141.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 15.2N 144.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 15.3N 147.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 16.0N 150.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.9N 152.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2014 12.9N 152.5W WEAK 00UTC 02.08.2014 12.7N 153.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 12.2N 156.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 11.3N 158.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 10.5N 160.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 9.7N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 9.7N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 10.5N 167.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 11.3N 170.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 12.5N 172.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 13.9N 174.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 15.6N 176.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 17.6N 177.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.2N 146.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2014 12.0N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 12.9N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.0N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 14.9N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.2N 116.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2014 13.2N 116.5W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2014 13.7N 118.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 13.6N 121.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 13.1N 123.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 12.9N 125.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2014 13.3N 128.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 13.9N 129.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2014 15.2N 132.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 16.2N 135.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 16.1N 134.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2014 16.1N 134.9W MODERATE 12UTC 04.08.2014 16.0N 136.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 15.8N 138.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 15.5N 139.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 15.4N 141.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 15.2N 144.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 15.3N 147.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 16.0N 150.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 23.9N 74.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2014 25.4N 75.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 28.9N 74.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 32.8N 73.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 36.6N 70.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 39.0N 64.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 41.0N 59.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 42.9N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011709