000 WTNT80 EGRR 310600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.07.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 149.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.07.2014 12.6N 149.5W WEAK 12UTC 31.07.2014 12.3N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.2N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 12.0N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 11.7N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 11.2N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 10.3N 156.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 9.6N 158.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 10.1N 160.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 10.8N 163.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 12.0N 166.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 12.6N 169.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 14.2N 171.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.2N 47.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.07.2014 10.2N 47.5W WEAK 12UTC 31.07.2014 10.6N 50.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 11.7N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 12.8N 55.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.0N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.5N 61.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2014 17.3N 65.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 18.9N 69.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 20.7N 72.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 22.9N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 25.6N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 31.5N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 11.5N 132.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.2N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 11.9N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 12.7N 134.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 11.5N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 11.5N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 12.2N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 12.1N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 13.8N 147.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.0N 150.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 16.2N 152.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 17.3N 155.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 17.6N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.6N 124.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.7N 124.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2014 14.0N 127.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2014 15.2N 129.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.08.2014 16.2N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 17.0N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 17.4N 134.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 17.3N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 17.1N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.8N 140.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 11.8N 140.5W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2014 12.2N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 12.1N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 13.8N 147.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.0N 150.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 16.2N 152.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 17.3N 155.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 17.6N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.4N 114.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 13.4N 114.2W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2014 13.7N 116.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 14.1N 117.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 14.1N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.5N 120.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 15.0N 122.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 16.2N 123.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 17.7N 125.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N 74.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2014 22.9N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 25.6N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 31.5N 76.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.1N 152.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2014 16.1N 152.5W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2014 17.3N 155.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 17.6N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310537