000
WTNT80 EGRR 011800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2014

        TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS    ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 115.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.07.2014  18.5N 115.8W   MODERATE
 00UTC 02.07.2014  19.5N 115.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.07.2014  19.8N 115.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.07.2014  20.2N 116.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.07.2014  20.6N 116.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.07.2014  21.2N 117.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2014  21.9N 118.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.07.2014  23.0N 120.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.07.2014  24.1N 121.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.07.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM ELIDA      ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 104.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.07.2014  17.8N 104.8W   MODERATE
 00UTC 02.07.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR     ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N  79.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.07.2014  27.7N  79.0W   MODERATE
 00UTC 02.07.2014  28.1N  79.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.07.2014  28.9N  79.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.07.2014  30.1N  79.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.07.2014  31.3N  79.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.07.2014  32.9N  77.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2014  34.8N  75.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.07.2014  36.9N  72.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.07.2014  39.3N  68.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 06.07.2014  42.7N  64.7W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 06.07.2014  44.0N  62.1W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.07.2014  45.5N  59.7W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.07.2014  47.0N  57.1W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.0N 115.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.07.2014  11.0N 115.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 07.07.2014  11.2N 117.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.07.2014  10.8N 120.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 011627