000 WTNT80 EGRR 101800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 128.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142013 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2013 16.4N 128.7W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.5N 37.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2013 11.0N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.10.2013 11.7N 39.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2013 12.0N 41.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2013 12.4N 43.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2013 13.0N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2013 14.0N 47.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2013 14.8N 49.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2013 16.1N 50.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2013 17.2N 51.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2013 18.2N 52.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2013 19.1N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.9N 109.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2013 14.9N 109.9W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2013 15.9N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2013 17.0N 112.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2013 19.5N 112.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2013 21.1N 111.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2013 22.4N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2013 23.0N 110.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2013 24.4N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101634