000 WTNT80 EGRR 091800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 128.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142013 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2013 16.7N 128.4W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2013 16.3N 128.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2013 15.8N 128.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.7N 74.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2013 34.7N 74.8W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2013 34.5N 75.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.10.2013 36.1N 76.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.10.2013 35.9N 77.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2013 36.4N 76.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2013 36.8N 76.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.7N 38.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2013 10.7N 38.7W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2013 11.7N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2013 12.4N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2013 13.1N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2013 14.3N 47.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2013 15.5N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2013 17.0N 50.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2013 18.1N 51.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.8N 108.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2013 15.8N 108.6W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2013 17.1N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2013 18.0N 110.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2013 21.6N 111.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2013 23.8N 109.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2013 24.9N 109.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.10.2013 24.9N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091719