000
WTNT80 EGRR 041800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2013

        TROPICAL STORM KAREN      ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N  89.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122013

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2013  25.3N  89.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 05.10.2013  26.4N  90.8W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.10.2013  27.7N  91.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2013  28.7N  91.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2013  29.3N  89.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.10.2013  29.7N  87.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2013  29.9N  85.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.10.2013        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.3N  35.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2013  33.3N  35.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.10.2013  34.2N  33.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2013  35.5N  31.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2013        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 21.6N 178.1E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2013  21.6N 178.1E     WEAK
 00UTC 05.10.2013  23.5N 179.5E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2013  27.6N 177.2E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2013  27.5N 172.5E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2013  28.4N 172.1E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2013  29.9N 171.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2013  30.7N 174.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2013  33.0N 178.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 08.10.2013  32.1N 176.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.10.2013  30.1N 177.2W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.10.2013  28.8N 178.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.10.2013  28.5N 179.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2013  28.0N 179.7W     WEAK         LITTLE CHANGE



 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 041709