000
WTNT80 EGRR 020600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2013

        TROPICAL STORM JERRY      ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N  44.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112013

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.10.2013  27.7N  44.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 02.10.2013  28.3N  43.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2013  29.1N  43.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2013  30.2N  41.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2013  31.4N  39.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2013        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.8N  90.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.10.2013  28.5N  90.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2013  30.2N  89.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2013  31.3N  88.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2013  33.3N  85.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2013        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.9N 120.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.10.2013  14.7N 120.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.10.2013  15.0N 122.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2013  15.9N 123.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2013  15.5N 125.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 020448