000
WTNT80 EGRR 141800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2012

        TROPICAL STORM PAUL       ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 113.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.10.2012  13.8N 113.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 15.10.2012  16.5N 114.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2012  18.5N 114.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2012  19.9N 114.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2012  22.1N 113.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.10.2012  23.1N 113.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.10.2012  24.1N 114.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2012      BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL     ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N  64.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.10.2012  19.2N  64.2W   MODERATE
 00UTC 15.10.2012  20.9N  65.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2012  21.9N  66.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2012  23.4N  66.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2012  25.7N  66.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2012  29.1N  64.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.10.2012  33.1N  62.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2012  37.4N  58.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.10.2012  41.1N  51.9W    STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.10.2012  43.9N  43.1W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 19.10.2012     EXTRA-TROPICAL

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 141637