000 WTNT80 EGRR 121800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2012 TROPICAL STORM PATTY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 72.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162012 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2012 23.9N 72.9W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2012 23.3N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2012 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.1N 63.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2012 15.1N 63.2W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2012 17.7N 63.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2012 19.3N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2012 21.0N 66.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2012 21.9N 68.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2012 22.8N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2012 24.3N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2012 26.4N 68.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2012 29.4N 66.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2012 33.2N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2012 37.9N 58.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.10.2012 41.4N 51.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.7N 114.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2012 14.7N 114.7W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2012 15.1N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2012 16.1N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2012 17.1N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2012 18.8N 116.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2012 20.4N 116.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2012 21.4N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2012 22.2N 116.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2012 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121706