000
WTNT80 EGRR 121800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2012

        TROPICAL STORM PATTY      ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N  72.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 12.10.2012  23.9N  72.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 13.10.2012  23.3N  73.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.10.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.1N  63.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.10.2012  15.1N  63.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 13.10.2012  17.7N  63.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.10.2012  19.3N  64.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.10.2012  21.0N  66.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.10.2012  21.9N  68.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2012  22.8N  69.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2012  24.3N  69.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.10.2012  26.4N  68.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.10.2012  29.4N  66.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.10.2012  33.2N  63.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2012  37.9N  58.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 18.10.2012  41.4N  51.8W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

       NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.7N  114.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.10.2012  14.7N 114.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 14.10.2012  15.1N 115.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.10.2012  16.1N 116.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2012  17.1N 116.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2012  18.8N 116.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.10.2012  20.4N 116.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.10.2012  21.4N 116.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.10.2012  22.2N 116.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.10.2012  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 121706