000 WTNT80 EGRR 111800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 72.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162012 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2012 24.9N 72.6W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2012 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N 64.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2012 17.2N 64.9W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2012 18.7N 66.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2012 19.9N 67.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2012 21.2N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2012 22.6N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2012 24.0N 70.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2012 25.8N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2012 28.2N 69.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2012 32.0N 67.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2012 36.2N 63.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.2N 114.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2012 15.2N 114.6W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2012 15.6N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2012 15.6N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2012 16.5N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2012 16.9N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2012 18.8N 115.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2012 20.1N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.10.2012 21.2N 114.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111721