000
WTNT80 EGRR 150600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2012

        TROPICAL STORM KRISTY     ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 113.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.09.2012  21.4N 113.7W   MODERATE
 12UTC 15.09.2012  22.4N 115.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2012  23.3N 116.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.09.2012  24.2N 118.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.09.2012  25.2N 119.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.09.2012  26.2N 119.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.09.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N  53.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.09.2012  29.6N  53.3W    STRONG
 12UTC 15.09.2012  30.8N  51.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2012  30.8N  48.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.09.2012  30.6N  45.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.09.2012  30.6N  42.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.09.2012  31.1N  39.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 18.09.2012  32.0N  36.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.09.2012  33.0N  33.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.09.2012  34.5N  31.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.09.2012  35.7N  30.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.09.2012  36.7N  28.9W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.09.2012  38.1N  26.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.09.2012  39.9N  23.8W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY


    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.6N 120.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.09.2012  14.6N 120.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 15.09.2012  14.6N 121.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2012  14.7N 123.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.09.2012  15.1N 124.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.09.2012  15.9N 126.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.09.2012  16.7N 127.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.09.2012  17.7N 128.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.09.2012  19.1N 129.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.09.2012  19.8N 130.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 19.09.2012       BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 34.0N  33.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.09.2012  34.0N  33.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 16.09.2012  33.9N  30.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.09.2012  34.8N  27.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.09.2012  35.9N  24.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.09.2012  36.9N  22.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.09.2012  37.1N  20.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.09.2012  37.3N  20.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.09.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 150437