000
WTNT80 EGRR 101800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2012

        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N  60.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.09.2012  36.4N  60.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 11.09.2012  41.1N  58.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.09.2012  48.0N  55.1W    STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2012     EXTRA-TROPICAL

             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N  45.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.09.2012  33.6N  45.8W   INTENSE
 00UTC 11.09.2012  35.2N  48.0W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 11.09.2012  39.0N  48.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 12.09.2012    EXTRA-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.2N 102.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.09.2012  15.2N 102.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 12.09.2012  15.9N 104.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 13.09.2012  17.2N 105.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 13.09.2012  18.0N 107.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 14.09.2012  18.7N 109.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.09.2012  19.2N 111.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.09.2012  19.9N 113.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.09.2012  20.7N 114.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.09.2012  21.9N 116.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.09.2012  23.0N 118.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.4N  44.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.09.2012  19.4N  44.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 12.09.2012  19.2N  47.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2012  20.9N  49.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.09.2012  22.1N  51.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.09.2012  23.9N  52.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.09.2012  25.7N  53.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.09.2012  28.4N  52.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 15.09.2012  31.3N  51.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 16.09.2012  33.4N  50.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 16.09.2012  34.3N  49.7W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 101648