000
WTNT80 EGRR 310600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2012

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC      ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N  93.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.08.2012  33.0N  93.0W   MODERATE
 12UTC 31.08.2012  35.3N  94.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2012  37.4N  93.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.09.2012    BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 114.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.08.2012  20.4N 114.3W   MODERATE
 12UTC 31.08.2012  21.2N 114.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2012  21.7N 115.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2012  21.9N 117.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2012  21.9N 118.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2012  21.9N 119.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2012  21.8N 121.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE KIRK       ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N  51.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.08.2012  28.4N  51.1W   MODERATE
 12UTC 31.08.2012  30.5N  51.5W     WEAK      WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2012  33.5N  50.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N  45.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.08.2012  14.7N  45.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 31.08.2012  16.2N  48.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2012  17.7N  51.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2012  19.1N  53.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2012  20.2N  56.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2012  21.4N  58.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2012  23.3N  60.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2012  25.1N  61.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2012  26.6N  62.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2012  27.7N  62.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2012  29.1N  62.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2012  30.4N  62.7W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2012  31.5N  62.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.3N 100.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.09.2012  13.3N 100.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 02.09.2012  14.6N 102.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2012  16.3N 104.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 03.09.2012  18.0N 106.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2012  20.2N 109.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2012  21.9N 111.6W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 04.09.2012  23.0N 113.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2012  23.8N 115.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2012  24.3N 116.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 310518