000 WTNT80 EGRR 141800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2011 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 107.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2011 18.6N 107.1W MODERATE 00UTC 15.10.2011 18.1N 107.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2011 17.0N 107.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2011 16.1N 108.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2011 15.2N 108.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2011 10.1N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.5N 91.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2011 13.5N 91.5W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2011 13.5N 91.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2011 13.2N 90.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.10.2011 13.4N 91.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2011 13.9N 92.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2011 14.2N 91.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 20.5N 84.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2011 18.9N 87.1W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2011 21.2N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2011 20.6N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2011 20.5N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2011 20.4N 92.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2011 20.0N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141659