000 WTNT80 EGRR 100600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2011 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 119.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2011 15.1N 119.1W MODERATE 12UTC 10.10.2011 15.1N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 14.8N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2011 14.6N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2011 14.8N 114.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 15.2N 112.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2011 17.1N 109.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2011 18.4N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2011 18.2N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2011 17.5N 104.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2011 16.5N 103.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2011 14.9N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2011 15.0N 102.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 107.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2011 16.4N 107.4W MODERATE 12UTC 10.10.2011 16.8N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 17.2N 106.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2011 17.9N 105.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.10.2011 18.7N 104.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 18.9N 102.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 27.8N 79.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2011 27.8N 79.6W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2011 29.7N 82.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 30.7N 83.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2011 32.0N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 92.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2011 12.4N 92.6W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2011 13.5N 92.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100455