000
WTNT80 EGRR 090600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.10.2011

        TROPICAL STORM IRWIN      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 120.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 09.10.2011  14.5N 120.7W   MODERATE
 12UTC 09.10.2011  14.9N 120.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2011  14.9N 119.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.10.2011  14.9N 118.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.10.2011  14.6N 116.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.10.2011  14.4N 115.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.10.2011  14.6N 113.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.10.2011  15.7N 111.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.10.2011  17.9N 108.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.10.2011  19.3N 106.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.10.2011  19.4N 106.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.10.2011     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE JOVA       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 109.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 09.10.2011  16.0N 109.9W   MODERATE
 12UTC 09.10.2011  15.8N 109.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2011  16.1N 108.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2011  16.2N 107.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.10.2011  16.8N 107.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.10.2011  17.7N 106.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.10.2011  18.6N 104.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.10.2011  19.5N 105.6W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 13.10.2011     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.2N  93.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.10.2011  13.2N  93.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 12.10.2011  13.9N  93.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.10.2011  14.1N  92.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.10.2011  15.8N  95.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.10.2011     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 090447