000 WTNT80 EGRR 081800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2011 HURRICANE IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 121.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2011 14.2N 121.4W STRONG 00UTC 09.10.2011 14.4N 121.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2011 14.7N 120.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2011 15.1N 120.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2011 15.4N 119.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2011 15.6N 117.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2011 15.5N 117.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2011 14.7N 115.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2011 15.3N 114.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2011 17.0N 112.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2011 18.7N 110.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 110.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2011 15.8N 110.5W MODERATE 00UTC 09.10.2011 16.0N 110.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2011 15.8N 109.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2011 16.0N 108.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2011 15.8N 108.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 16.1N 107.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2011 17.0N 106.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2011 17.9N 105.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 18.7N 104.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.10.2011 18.9N 103.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2011 18.0N 102.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 49.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2011 32.5N 49.1W MODERATE 00UTC 09.10.2011 36.7N 44.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2011 39.9N 42.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2011 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.8N 79.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2011 29.8N 79.8W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2011 30.8N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 32.2N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2011 33.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2011 35.7N 76.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2011 38.6N 76.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2011 43.1N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081720