000 WTNT80 EGRR 071800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2011 HURRICANE IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 120.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2011 13.5N 120.3W MODERATE 00UTC 08.10.2011 14.4N 121.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2011 14.4N 122.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2011 14.4N 122.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2011 14.7N 122.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2011 15.1N 122.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2011 15.2N 122.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2011 15.1N 121.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2011 14.9N 120.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2011 14.9N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2011 15.2N 117.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2011 16.5N 116.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2011 18.6N 114.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 109.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2011 13.5N 109.9W MODERATE 00UTC 08.10.2011 14.6N 111.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2011 15.5N 111.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2011 16.2N 111.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2011 16.5N 111.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2011 16.7N 110.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2011 16.8N 109.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 17.2N 108.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2011 17.7N 107.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2011 18.2N 106.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 18.4N 106.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.10.2011 19.1N 105.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2011 19.0N 104.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY HURRICANE PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 55.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2011 29.7N 55.8W MODERATE 00UTC 08.10.2011 30.1N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2011 33.2N 49.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2011 36.5N 45.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2011 42.0N 40.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.10.2011 45.0N 36.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.10.2011 45.6N 36.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 50.8N 31.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2011 54.8N 27.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2011 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 25.3N 80.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2011 25.3N 80.9W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2011 25.3N 80.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2011 28.1N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2011 29.1N 81.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2011 30.3N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2011 31.8N 79.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2011 33.3N 77.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2011 34.2N 80.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2011 40.5N 85.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071716