000
WTNT80 EGRR 020600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2011

             HURRICANE OPHELIA    ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N  62.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.10.2011  32.6N  62.3W   INTENSE
 12UTC 02.10.2011  37.2N  61.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2011  42.4N  60.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 03.10.2011  47.0N  56.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2011 EXTRA-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE   ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N  49.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.10.2011  25.3N  49.5W   MODERATE
 12UTC 02.10.2011  26.0N  51.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.10.2011  26.4N  53.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.10.2011  26.4N  55.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2011  26.4N  57.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2011  26.3N  59.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2011  26.8N  59.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2011  28.8N  59.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2011     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.1N  97.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.10.2011  10.1N  97.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.10.2011  10.9N  96.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2011  11.6N  98.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2011  11.9N 100.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.10.2011  12.9N 101.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2011  14.2N 103.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.10.2011  15.8N 105.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2011  17.0N 106.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.10.2011  17.9N 106.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2011  18.7N 105.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 020456