000
WTNT80 EGRR 011800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2011

             HURRICANE OPHELIA    ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N  63.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.10.2011  28.5N  63.2W   INTENSE
 00UTC 02.10.2011  32.0N  62.3W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2011  36.5N  61.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2011  41.8N  60.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 03.10.2011  47.0N  57.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2011        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE   ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N  47.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.10.2011  24.3N  47.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 02.10.2011  25.2N  49.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2011  25.9N  52.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2011  26.5N  54.2W   MODERATE         WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.10.2011  26.6N  56.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2011  27.2N  57.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2011  27.0N  58.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2011  28.5N  58.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2011  30.5N  57.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2011  33.4N  55.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.10.2011  38.5N  51.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.10.2011  45.8N  50.1W   WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.10.2011    BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.5N  99.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.10.2011  11.5N  99.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.10.2011  11.9N 101.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.10.2011  12.8N 103.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2011  13.5N 105.0W    STRONG  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2011  14.8N 106.2W    STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2011  16.0N 107.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.10.2011  17.6N 108.1W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.10.2011  19.1N 107.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 011724