000 WTNT80 EGRR 301800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 121.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2011 22.6N 121.5W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2011 23.3N 122.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2011 23.4N 123.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2011 23.4N 124.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 62.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2011 22.9N 62.8W MODERATE 00UTC 01.10.2011 24.9N 62.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2011 27.6N 63.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2011 30.8N 62.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2011 34.8N 61.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2011 40.0N 61.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2011 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 44.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172011 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2011 22.3N 44.9W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2011 24.0N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2011 25.1N 48.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2011 25.9N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2011 26.8N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2011 27.3N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2011 27.8N 55.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2011 28.1N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2011 28.9N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2011 30.2N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2011 32.0N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2011 34.8N 54.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2011 40.6N 51.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.4N 97.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2011 10.4N 97.6W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2011 10.2N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2011 10.5N 99.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2011 10.9N 101.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2011 11.8N 103.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2011 12.8N 106.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2011 14.2N 107.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2011 15.1N 109.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301658