000
WTNT80 EGRR 011800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2011

             HURRICANE KATIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  46.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.09.2011  15.2N  46.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 02.09.2011  15.8N  49.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 02.09.2011  16.5N  51.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2011  17.2N  53.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2011  18.1N  55.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2011  18.9N  56.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2011  19.3N  58.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2011  20.0N  60.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2011  20.6N  61.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2011  21.2N  63.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2011  21.5N  65.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2011  21.6N  67.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2011  21.5N  69.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 37.3N  64.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.09.2011  37.3N  64.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 02.09.2011  36.9N  65.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2011  37.8N  64.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2011  39.2N  62.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2011  40.6N  61.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2011  42.3N  57.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2011        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.1N  94.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.09.2011  28.1N  94.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.09.2011  27.2N  93.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2011  28.5N  92.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2011  28.3N  92.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.09.2011  28.8N  91.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 06.09.2011  29.6N  90.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2011  30.1N  90.9W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.09.2011  30.2N  91.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2011  31.0N  90.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 011656