000
WTNT80 EGRR 310600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2011

        TROPICAL STORM KATIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N  36.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.08.2011  13.1N  36.7W   MODERATE
 12UTC 31.08.2011  13.8N  40.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2011  14.4N  43.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2011  15.1N  46.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2011  16.0N  49.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2011  17.2N  51.8W    STRONG     LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2011  18.4N  53.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2011  19.1N  54.9W    STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2011  19.8N  55.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2011  20.3N  57.0W    STRONG     LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2011  21.1N  58.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2011  21.4N  59.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2011  22.1N  61.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.6N 101.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.08.2011  15.6N 101.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 31.08.2011  16.0N 102.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2011  16.8N 102.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2011  17.5N 103.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.09.2011   BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 28.2N  91.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2011  28.2N  91.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.09.2011  28.5N  91.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2011  28.5N  90.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2011  29.1N  90.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2011  28.8N  90.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2011  28.0N  91.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2011  27.5N  91.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 310508