000 WHXX01 KMIA 210600 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0600 UTC MON JUN 21 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS (EP032010) 20100621 0600 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100621 0600 100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 18.0N 116.6W 18.7N 118.8W 19.3N 121.5W 19.8N 124.1W BAMD 18.0N 116.6W 18.5N 119.3W 19.1N 121.8W 19.7N 124.0W BAMM 18.0N 116.6W 18.5N 119.2W 18.9N 121.9W 19.2N 124.5W LBAR 18.0N 116.6W 18.4N 118.9W 19.1N 121.4W 19.8N 124.0W SHIP 30KTS 26KTS 21KTS 0KTS DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 21KTS 0KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100623 0600 100624 0600 100625 0600 100626 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 19.9N 126.5W 20.4N 131.6W 21.2N 137.2W 22.5N 142.2W BAMD 20.5N 125.9W 22.9N 129.0W 25.3N 130.2W 26.6N 129.6W BAMM 19.4N 126.9W 20.2N 131.3W 21.8N 135.5W 23.7N 138.9W LBAR 20.5N 126.4W 22.9N 130.3W 26.5N 133.4W 29.0N 135.8W SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 116.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 114.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 111.9W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN 000 WTNT80 EGRR 210600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.06.2010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 115.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032010 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.06.2010 16.3N 115.6W WEAK 12UTC 21.06.2010 18.2N 117.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.06.2010 17.9N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE CELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 100.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042010 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.06.2010 10.3N 97.9W MODERATE 12UTC 21.06.2010 11.9N 101.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.06.2010 12.6N 103.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.06.2010 13.2N 105.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.06.2010 13.3N 107.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.06.2010 13.2N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.06.2010 13.3N 110.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.06.2010 13.7N 111.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.06.2010 14.2N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.06.2010 14.8N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.06.2010 15.1N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210454