000
WTNT80 EGRR 141800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2009

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA   ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 110.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192009

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.10.2009  23.4N 110.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 15.10.2009  23.6N 110.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.10.2009        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 101.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.10.2009  12.9N 101.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 18.10.2009  13.3N 104.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.10.2009  13.8N 107.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.10.2009  14.3N 109.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.10.2009  15.4N 111.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.10.2009  15.8N 113.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.10.2009  16.2N 115.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 141645