000
WTNT80 EGRR 131800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2009

        TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA   ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 109.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192009

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 13.10.2009  20.9N 109.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 14.10.2009  22.0N 109.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.10.2009  22.5N 110.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.10.2009  22.2N 111.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.10.2009  22.1N 113.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2009        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.6N  98.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 16.10.2009  11.6N  98.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 16.10.2009  11.4N 100.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2009  12.0N 101.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.10.2009  12.5N 103.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.10.2009  12.9N 106.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.10.2009  13.9N 109.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.10.2009  14.3N 111.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 19.10.2009  15.4N 113.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 131630