000
WTNT80 EGRR 071800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2009

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN    ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 125.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152009

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2009  15.0N 125.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2009  15.0N 127.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2009  15.1N 128.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2009  14.4N 129.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2009  14.4N 130.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2009  15.1N 130.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2009  15.7N 130.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2009  15.9N 131.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.09.2009  16.9N 131.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2009  17.1N 133.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.09.2009  16.9N 134.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2009  16.2N 136.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2009        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
12.0N  22.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2009  12.0N  22.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2009  11.5N  25.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2009  11.6N  27.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2009  12.7N  30.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2009  13.4N  32.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2009  15.3N  34.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.09.2009  16.3N  35.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.09.2009  17.8N  35.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2009  18.5N  36.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.09.2009  18.6N  35.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.09.2009  18.6N  35.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.09.2009  18.9N  35.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.09.2009  19.7N  35.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 071647