000
WTNT80 EGRR 111800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.07.2009

        TROPICAL STORM CARLOS     ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 116.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042009

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.07.2009  10.2N 116.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 12.07.2009  10.5N 118.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.07.2009  10.8N 120.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 13.07.2009  10.7N 123.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.07.2009  10.6N 125.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.07.2009  10.6N 127.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.07.2009  11.1N 129.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.07.2009  11.4N 132.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2009  11.9N 134.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2009  12.3N 136.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2009  12.6N 138.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2009  12.9N 140.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.07.2009  12.9N 143.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.2N 110.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 13.07.2009  11.2N 110.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 14.07.2009  10.9N 113.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.07.2009  11.5N 115.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.07.2009  12.3N 117.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2009  12.8N 119.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.07.2009  12.9N 121.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.07.2009  13.3N 124.6W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.07.2009  14.2N 127.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.07.2009  13.9N 131.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 111641