000
WTNT80 EGRR 191743

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2008

        TROPICAL STORM FAY        ANALYSED POSITION : 26.8N  81.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062008

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.08.2008  26.8N  81.2W   MODERATE
 00UTC 20.08.2008  27.6N  80.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.08.2008  28.8N  80.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.08.2008  29.4N  80.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.08.2008  29.7N  80.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.08.2008  29.8N  81.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.08.2008  29.8N  82.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 23.08.2008  30.6N  84.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.08.2008  31.0N  86.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.08.2008  32.1N  88.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.08.2008  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N  35.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 21.08.2008  11.5N  35.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 21.08.2008  11.1N  36.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 22.08.2008  13.7N  34.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 22.08.2008  15.3N  37.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2008  16.3N  40.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2008  17.0N  44.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.08.2008  17.9N  48.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.08.2008  18.8N  52.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.08.2008  19.3N  55.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.08.2008  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 191743