000
WTNT80 EGRR 111718

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.07.2008

             HURRICANE BERTHA     ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N  62.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022008

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.07.2008  28.3N  62.0W   MODERATE
 00UTC 12.07.2008  29.4N  62.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.07.2008  29.8N  62.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.07.2008  30.2N  62.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.07.2008  30.2N  62.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.07.2008  31.0N  62.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.07.2008  31.7N  63.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2008  33.2N  63.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.07.2008  34.5N  62.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.07.2008  34.9N  61.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.07.2008  34.7N  61.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.07.2008  34.1N  60.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.07.2008  33.7N  59.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 :  8.9N  33.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.07.2008   8.9N  33.6W     WEAK        
 12UTC 13.07.2008  10.1N  34.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.07.2008  10.3N  36.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.07.2008  11.4N  38.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.07.2008  11.9N  39.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.07.2008  12.4N  41.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.07.2008  12.8N  44.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.07.2008  13.5N  46.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.07.2008  14.2N  48.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.07.2008  14.9N  51.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 10.6N  89.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.07.2008  10.6N  89.5W     WEAK        
 00UTC 15.07.2008  11.4N  90.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.07.2008  11.1N  92.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.07.2008  11.4N  94.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.07.2008  11.7N  96.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.07.2008  12.5N  98.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 17.07.2008  13.7N 100.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 111718