000
WTNT80 EGRR 291728

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2007

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN   ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 111.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.09.2007  14.8N 111.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.09.2007  15.1N 112.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 30.09.2007  17.7N 113.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.10.2007  20.1N 115.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.10.2007  21.9N 115.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 02.10.2007  23.4N 115.7W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 02.10.2007  23.8N 115.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.10.2007        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN      ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N  53.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.09.2007  16.3N  53.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.09.2007  16.9N  55.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.09.2007  18.2N  55.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2007  19.3N  57.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.10.2007  20.1N  58.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.10.2007  20.5N  59.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2007  21.2N  60.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2007  21.6N  61.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2007  22.0N  61.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2007  22.7N  61.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2007  23.1N  60.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2007  24.9N  60.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2007  25.6N  60.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 23.0N  83.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.10.2007  23.0N  83.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 02.10.2007  23.1N  84.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2007  21.1N  86.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2007  21.9N  87.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2007  21.7N  90.6W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2007  21.6N  91.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2007  21.6N  93.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2007  22.0N  92.6W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.10.2007  22.4N  96.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 291728