000
WTNT80 EGRR 281705

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2007

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN   ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N  26.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2007  13.4N  26.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.09.2007  13.6N  27.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2007  14.1N  29.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2007  14.4N  30.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.09.2007  15.6N  33.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2007  15.9N  35.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2007        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM KAREN      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N  49.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2007  14.0N  49.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.09.2007  15.8N  50.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2007  16.2N  52.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2007  17.7N  53.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.09.2007  19.0N  55.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2007  20.1N  56.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2007  21.2N  58.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2007  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO    ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N  97.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2007  21.1N  97.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.09.2007  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.2N 109.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.09.2007  18.2N 109.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 01.10.2007  20.8N 109.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2007  22.8N 110.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.10.2007  24.9N 111.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2007  25.3N 110.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.10.2007  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281705