000
WTNT80 EGRR 111718

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.08.2007

             HURRICANE FLOSSIE    ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 139.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.08.2007  12.6N 139.8W   MODERATE
 00UTC 12.08.2007  13.2N 141.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.08.2007  13.8N 143.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2007  14.8N 146.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2007  15.2N 148.4W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 14.08.2007  15.3N 151.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.08.2007  15.4N 154.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2007  15.6N 157.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.08.2007  16.2N 160.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2007        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH 

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.8N 25.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 12.08.2007  11.8N  25.1W     WEAK        
 00UTC 13.08.2007  12.2N  28.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.08.2007  12.2N  32.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 14.08.2007  12.6N  35.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.08.2007  13.3N  39.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2007  14.1N  42.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2007  15.1N  47.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2007  15.7N  51.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.08.2007  16.5N  55.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.08.2007  17.6N  59.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.08.2007  19.0N  63.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    
 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 111718