000
WTNT80 EGRR 021758

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2007

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK      ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 130.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.08.2007  13.2N 130.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.08.2007  13.0N 131.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.08.2007  13.3N 133.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 04.08.2007  14.9N 134.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.08.2007  15.3N 137.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.08.2007  15.9N 138.8W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.08.2007  15.8N 142.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.08.2007  15.6N 143.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.08.2007  15.9N 146.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.08.2007  15.9N 148.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.08.2007  15.5N 150.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.08.2007  15.7N 152.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.08.2007  15.9N 153.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 
             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 29.4N  84.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.08.2007  29.4N  84.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.08.2007  31.0N  82.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.08.2007  32.4N  82.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.08.2007  33.1N  77.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.08.2007  32.4N  75.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.08.2007  31.3N  73.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.08.2007  30.9N  71.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2007  31.4N  71.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.08.2007  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 
 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021758