000 WTNT80 EGRR 101707 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.07.2007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 120.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042007 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.07.2007 17.9N 120.2W WEAK 00UTC 11.07.2007 19.4N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2007 20.2N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2007 21.0N 125.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.07.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 9.5N 94.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2007 9.5N 94.8W WEAK 00UTC 14.07.2007 10.2N 96.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2007 10.5N 98.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2007 10.9N 100.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2007 11.7N 102.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2007 12.2N 103.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2007 13.0N 105.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 107.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2007 12.9N 107.8W WEAK 00UTC 14.07.2007 14.2N 110.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2007 14.7N 113.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2007 15.7N 115.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2007 16.5N 117.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2007 17.3N 117.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.07.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.1N 119.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2007 12.1N 119.1W WEAK 00UTC 14.07.2007 12.2N 120.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2007 12.3N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2007 12.2N 123.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2007 12.6N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2007 13.0N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2007 13.6N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101707 000 WHXX04 KWBC 101717 CHGQLM ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR 04E INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 10 DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST STORM POSITION HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT) 0 18.2 120.7 310./ 8.0 6 18.6 121.3 308./ 7.4 12 18.8 122.1 285./ 7.8 18 19.2 122.9 292./ 8.3 24 19.5 123.6 292./ 7.8 30 19.8 124.3 294./ 6.9 36 20.1 124.9 298./ 6.6 42 20.4 125.5 299./ 6.5 48 20.8 126.3 294./ 8.0 54 21.3 126.8 314./ 7.0 60 21.4 127.1 298./ 3.6 66 21.8 127.9 294./ 7.5 STORM DISSIPATED AT 66 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.