000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 13.3N 106.0W at 29/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward turn Fri. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm today or tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 101W and 110W. Based on the current forecast track, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters from Guerrero to Jalisco over the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible northward from offshore Cabo Corrientes to near the entrance to the Gulf of California Fri night into Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 13N101W and from 12N107W to 09N129W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N129W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with T.D. ONE-E, scattered moderate convection can be found from 06N to 12N between 111W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression ONE-E. North of the tropical depression, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters off Baja California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds are noted over the Gulf of California, extending southward to Cabo Corrientes. To the southeast of the impacts of T.D.-One-E, offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas, mainly gentle SE winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will relax offshore Baja California into the weekend, causing winds to diminish to gentle to moderate. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds with moderate seas in SW swell prevail. Locally higher winds and seas are likely occurring near the convective activity along the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central and SW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region into Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds prevailing to the S of it through into the weekend. Long period SW swell will build across the offshore forecast waters, leading to rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... Please, see the Special Features section above for information Tropical Depression ONE-E. High pressure of 1025 mb located near 30N134W extends a ridge across most of the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W while lower pressures persist to the east related to Tropical Depression ONE-E. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the trade wind zone. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and W of 110W through the end of the week as the high pressure center remains nearly stationary over the NW corner of the forecast region. This will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Farther south, a new set of long period SW swell will bring seas to 8 to 9 ft over most of the waters S of 10N between 100W and 122W by Fri. Looking ahead, a new and stronger high pressure center, moving eastward N of the region, will bring fresh northerly winds across the N waters, particularly N of 25N and W of 125W this weekend. $$ Konarik