000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101610 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section... Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A rather significant gap wind event is anticipated across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed morning through Fri morning, as a strong cold front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and over southeastern Mexico, followed by a strong high pressure system. Winds will quickly reach gale- force Wed morning, then rapidly increase to strong gale-force by Wed afternoon and briefly increase further to storm-force late Wed afternoon and evening. Seas will quickly build to 13 to 20 ft Wed afternoon through night. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend to 250 nm from the Tehuantepec coast by Wed evening. They are forecast to persist over these waters through early Thu evening before gradually diminishing to strong to near north gap winds Thu night through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over NW Colombia, west-southwestward to 09N83W to 08N90W to 06N96W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N110W to 08N125W to 03N130W and to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 130W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is present over these waters, with an associated narrow ridge extending from near 30N129W to 23N115W and continues southeastward to south of the Revillagigedo Islands near 17N110W. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters. West to northwest swell moving through these waters is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft across the Baja waters. Inside the Gulf of California, winds have become northwest fresh to strong in speeds, except strong to near gale-force speeds north of about 29N. Seas over the Gulf have build to 5 to 8 ft, except for an area of higher seas of 7 to 10 ft in the northern part of the Gulf. Further south, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in west swell are present from the entrance to the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate north winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas are over the the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swell prevails across the rest of the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, a strong cold front will sweep southward across eastern Mexico late tonight through Wed. In response to strong high pressure that will build in behind the front, strong to near gale force northerly winds and rapidly building seas will continue to surge southward down the length of the Gulf of California through Wed evening. Strong northeast gap winds will also spill across the Baja California Peninsula gaps to across Pacific waters. Farther south, strong gale-force winds are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from Wed late morning through Thu, with a brief period of storm- force winds late Wed afternoon and evening, following this same cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico. See the Special Features section above for more information on these upcoming gale and storm-force winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. These winds extends downstream to 91W. Seas there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will sustain pulses of fresh to locally strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through this morning, then return again Wed night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. Strong winds and high seas along the eastern edge of a storm- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala Wed night through early Fri. Winds and seas there are expected to improve significantly by Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper-level trough is north of the ITCZ near 131W, and is shifting eastward while a jet stream stretches from near 20N140W to 21N135W to 23N125W, and continues east-northeastward to over central Mexico. Its associated dynamics is helping to sustain and area of scattered moderate convection from 12N to 16N between 130W and 138W. An area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is to the east from 12N to 16N between 121W and 125W. Otherwise, the gradient related to high pressure located north of about 19N is allowing for fresh to strong trades to exist from 13N to 20N between 130W and 140W. Seas with these winds are 10 to 12 ft. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ trades are gentle to moderate in speeds to near 25N with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 25N along with seas of 5 to 6 ft in northwest swell. For the forecast, a large set of northwest swell has begun to intrude into the far northwest part of the area. It will continue to propagate into the region north of 20N and and west of 125W tonight and Tue, supporting 8 to 11 ft combined seas across the NW waters. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in northwest swell are forecast to remain across the tropical waters south of 20N and west of 130W through Thu, where fresh to strong trade winds will continue as new high pressure builds over the western part of the area. Looking ahead, winds and seas south of 20N are expected to gradually subside toward the weekend. Farther east, a long fetch of moderate to fresh E to SE winds near the aforementioned surface trough along with shorter-period swell generated from gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec has resulted in 6 to 8 ft seas north of the ITCZ into the trough along 121W. Winds and seas will diminish east of 120W through Wed as the trough and associated weather weakens and the ridge to the north weakens. $$ Aguirre