000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 13.3N 106.0W at
29/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. A turn toward the northwest is expected
later today, followed by a northward turn Fri. The depression is
expected to become a tropical storm today or tonight. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 
101W and 110W. Based on the current forecast track, a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters from Guerrero 
to Jalisco over the next couple of days. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible northward from offshore Cabo Corrientes 
to near the entrance to the Gulf of California Fri night into 
Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 13N101W and from
12N107W to 09N129W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N129W to 
07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with T.D. ONE-E, 
scattered moderate convection can be found from 06N to 12N 
between 111W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression ONE-E.

North of the tropical depression, a ridge dominates the offshore
forecast waters off Baja California, supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds
are noted over the Gulf of California, extending southward to 
Cabo Corrientes. To the southeast of the impacts of T.D.-One-E,
offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas, mainly gentle SE winds and moderate
seas in mixed swell prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will relax offshore Baja
California into the weekend, causing winds to diminish to gentle
to moderate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ongoing across the Papagayo
region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds with moderate seas in SW 
swell prevail. Locally higher winds and seas are likely occurring
near the convective activity along the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with 
fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central and SW 
Caribbean will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE to 
E winds in the Papagayo region into Fri. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to
locally moderate S to SW winds prevailing to the S of it through
into the weekend. Long period SW swell will build across the 
offshore forecast waters, leading to rough seas between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands Fri night through Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Please, see the Special Features section above for information 
Tropical Depression ONE-E.

High pressure of 1025 mb located near 30N134W extends a ridge 
across most of the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 
110W while lower pressures persist to the east related to 
Tropical Depression ONE-E. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 
moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge with the 
exception of moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the trade wind
zone.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across most of the forecast waters N of the 
ITCZ/Monsoon trough and W of 110W through the end of the week as 
the high pressure center remains nearly stationary over the NW 
corner of the forecast region. This will support moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds. Farther south, a new set of long 
period SW swell will bring seas to 8 to 9 ft over most of the 
waters S of 10N between 100W and 122W by Fri. Looking ahead, a 
new and stronger high pressure center, moving eastward N of the 
region, will bring fresh northerly winds across the N waters, 
particularly N of 25N and W of 125W this weekend. 

$$
Konarik