000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a ridge that extends from the western Gulf of America southward to southeastern Mexico and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will continue to support gale-force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Mon. Winds will quickly diminish through the day. Peak seas with these winds may reach to near 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft in west to northwest swell by Tue afternoon. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Gale-force winds will pulse again across the Papagayo region tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the western Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure associated with the ITCZ. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N110W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N140W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 14N110W to 05N120W. Scattered moderate convection is with the second trough mainly between 108W-119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are west of Baja California as well as to the southwest of the peninsula, while light and variable winds are prevail elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are mostly in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California while mostly gentle northwest winds are in the northern section. Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the central and southern sections of the Gulf and 2 to 3 ft in the northern section. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the Mexican waters, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft in long-period west to northwest swell from 17N-22N and west of 107W. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event, the long-period northwest swell north of 17N and west of 107W will begin to decay tonight. A cold front is expected to move across the waters west of Baja California Norte from late Tue into Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong southeast winds are expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tue ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, a set of northwest swell in the wake of the front may move through the outermost offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed before decaying Wed night. Fresh to strong southeast are expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tuesday. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo conditions, fresh to strong NE winds have developed in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, the strong winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late Mon night and continue with little change through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1029 mb is analyzed north of the area at 32N131W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 25N and west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure to the south associated with the ITCZ is producing fresh trades from 07N to 15N west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest swell mixed with wind generated waves, except mixed with northeast to east swell west of about 128W. Fresh east winds generated from the recent Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event have spread westward to near 105W. For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest swell will slowly subside to around 8 ft through Tue. The trades over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part of the area, and the high pressure that is in place shifts eastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft in northwest swell. Seas 12 ft and greater are expected along and just north of 30N and between 128W and 131W at that time. $$ ERA