000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 16.1N 106.9W at 05/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 19 ft near the center of the storm. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13N to 20N between 104W and 111W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in spiral bands are elsewhere from 10N to 22N between 96W and 114W. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico through early this week. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Priscilla is likely to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.6N 124.1W at 05/0900 UTC, moving north-northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 122W and 126W. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday. Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N87W to 11N97W, then resumes SW of Octave from 11N128W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Octave and Priscilla, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 78W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Priscilla. The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are being affected by Tropical Storm Priscilla. Farther north, the pressure gradient between both Tropical Storms Priscilla and Octave, and a broad ridge extending eastward to the Baja California Norte offshores is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere in Tehuantepec and the Gulf of California where seas are mainly slight, except moderate in Tehuantepec S of 15N. For the forecast, Priscilla will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N 107.2W this afternoon, move to 17.1N 107.6W Mon morning, 18.0N 108.4W Mon afternoon, 18.9N 109.4W Tue morning, 19.7N 110.7W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 112.0W Wed morning. Priscilla will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 114.5W early Thu. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California today supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of next week while moving west- northwestward to northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and tstms persist across the offshore waters of Central America with scatterometer data showing fresh to strong winds in the areas of strongest convection. Away from the convection and N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle and seas moderate to 6 ft. South of the monsoon, winds are mainly moderate from the S and SW and seas moderate to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough into Thu night. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region through Thu night. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador as a low pressure develops along the monsoon today and remain nearly stationary before shifting westward to the Tehuantepec region Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Octave, and Tropical Storm Priscilla. Outside of the Tropical Storms, a weak surface ridge dominates the subtropical E Pacific waters to the west of 117W. A weak pressure gradient between the weak ridge and the tropical storms is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of 20N and W of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough to 05N, between 90W and 130W. For the forecast, Priscilla will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N 107.2W this afternoon, move to 17.1N 107.6W Mon morning, 18.0N 108.4W Mon afternoon, 18.9N 109.4W Tue morning, 19.7N 110.7W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 112.0W Wed morning. Priscilla will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 114.5W early Thu. Octave will move to 15.9N 123.8W this afternoon, 16.1N 122.9W Mon morning, 16.1N 121.9W Mon afternoon, 15.9N 120.7W Tue morning, 15.5N 119.6W Tue afternoon, and 15.3N 118.4W Wed morning. Octave will weaken to a tropical depression near 16.3N 115.4W early Thu. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu night. $$ Ramos