000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell NW Waters: A complex 997 mb low pressure system is centered north of the area near 41N137W. Near-storm force winds near the low center have been supporting large NW swell reaching the discussion waters south of 30N. A recent Sofar buoy near 30N140W indicated combined seas there in excess of 14 ft. Additional NW swell reaching as high as 18 ft will arrive into the waters north of 26N and west of 135W over the next several hours. The large swell in excess of 12 ft will spread eastward covering the waters north of 25N and west of 125W through late Sat. The swell will also be gradually subsiding as it spreads eastward, and should be below 12 ft by late Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 06N90W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 11N130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 07N east of 80W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1020 mb high pressure over the central Gulf of America is forcing strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with associated rough seas. Farther north, 1017 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near 23N114W. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, where seas are are peaking near 7 ft. Gentle breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, the strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish early this morning, as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Fresh to strong gap winds may return to Tehuantepec Sun and Mon. Farther north, fresh to locally strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes will diminish this morning. Long period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters Sat night through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the region is supporting strong NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, reaching as far south as 05N. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas today, then diminish. Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama into tonight. As the high weakens, these winds will diminish in both areas, but may return starting Sun. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on significant swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough combined seas into the weekend. Seas to 7 ft are noted from 05N to 10N between 90W and 115W, due in part to earlier gap wind events from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. Farther northwest, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force SW winds within 120 nm east of a cold front extending from 30N132W to 24N140W. Strong NW winds follow the front as well. 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 25N123W. A surface trough is analyzed over the tropical waters from 18N127W to 12N135W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated fresh W to SW winds following the front mainly south of 10N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, the seas over the deep tropics east of 115W will subside today. Farther northwest, the cold front will gradually weaken as it continues to move eastward over the waters north of 25N through Sat. A reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, another front will enter the waters east of 130W by Mon night and approach 120W through late Tue. These fronts will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge north of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the region into early next week. $$ Christensen