000 AXNT20 KNHC 051753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N22W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 12N and between 10W and 42W. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near Destin, FL to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection follows the front generally N of 27N and E of 92W. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds and seas of 5-9 ft are behind the cold front. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh S winds and 3-5 ft seas are observed. In the Bay of Campeche, a pair of surface troughs are leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming near both trough axes. For the forecast, a cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near Destin, Florida to 26N93W to Veracruz, Mexico this morning, with scattered showers noted along the front. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will prevail across the western Gulf behind the front into this afternoon before winds and seas begin to diminish. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin this evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to locally strong trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail across western portions of the Caribbean. A weak upper level trough and pockets of enhanced moisture in the central Caribbean are also leading to scattered moderate convection occurring in a region from 13N to 17N between 72W and 80W. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to near 23N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from 27N56W northeastward. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to locally strong SW winds and 6-9 ft seas ahead of this feature generally N of 27N and W of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from 31N55W to near 26N70W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this trough to moderate to fresh N winds north of the trough is observed in scatterometer data. To the west, a 1018 mb low near 29N67W extends another frontal remnant trough southwestward through the Bahamas and Florida Straits. No significant convection or wind shifts are observed with this feature. Off the east coast of FL and north of the Bahamas, a 1015 mb low is driving moderate to fresh S winds ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the development of scattered moderate convection between 12N and 20N and E of 30W, with widely scattered showers also observed N of 20N and E of 30W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well as areas N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from just SE of Bermuda to 26N70W is expected to move eastward across the central Atlantic today through Sat, leading to fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas will develop off NE Florida today ahead of the next cold front that will enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push quickly eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun morning and dissipate Sun night. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front. $$ Adams