000 AXNT20 KNHC 251043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis along 30/31W from 12N southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. A TPW maximum is just behind the wave axis. Model guidance supports this position. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis where it intersects the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is analyzed from 18N42W to 09N41W, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66/67W from 07N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in TPW imagery. Puerto Rico Doppler Radar and satellite imagery show scattered showers and isolated tstorms near and over Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis along 79W from 05N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the SW Caribbean south of 12N between 74W-84W, and along and near the coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N21W to 05N32W. The ITCZ begins near 05N32W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb surface high near 27N88W is bringing quiet weather to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level riding also prevails over the eastern Gulf. Southerly winds to the west of the high are ushering in moist tropical air to the west-central Gulf and southern Texas. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen over the west-central Gulf from 21N-27N, west of 95W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms extend north of that area along the Texas coast. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the western Bay of Campeche. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. The northwest Caribbean still contains relatively dry air, although there is enough moisture to support isolated to scattered showers and tstorms north of 18N west of 75W, to near the Yucatan Channel. Farther south, in an area with greater moisture content, scattered moderate convection is seen over NW Venezuela, northern Colombia, as well as the waters north of Panama and east of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Latest ASCAT pass from Monday evening shows strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras, with fresh trades in the central Caribbean, and moderate winds elsewhere. The Bermuda high will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the central and southwest Caribbean through the weekend. Near gale force winds are expected at night over Colombia adjacent waters tonight through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends from a triple point near 33N72W to 29N72W. A warm front extends SE from the triple point to 30N68W. Isolated showers are seen from 27N-30N between 71W-75W. A cold front enters the area near 32N49W to 28N53W to 27N58W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N48W to 25.5N54W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the trough, mainly N of 24N between 44W-56W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N13W to 26N17W. No significant convection accompanies the front. A frontal boundary across the waters north of 27N should dissipate today. A trough will linger over the north-central waters, and move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area through Wed. The Bermuda high will strengthen Wed night through Sat and tradewinds will increase to moderate east of the Bahamas, across the Old Bahama Channel, and in the approach to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen