000 AXNT20 KNHC 250554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 10.9N 50.4W at 25/0300 UTC, approximately 552 nm ESE of Barbados, and is moving W at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb with maximum sustained wind speed at 35 kt and gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north and west of the center, from 10N- 13N between 50W- 52W. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. See latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. See latest NHC marine forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details or visit www.hurricanes.gov. A 1012 mb surface low continues to be centered over South Florida near 26N81W, with a surface trough extending from the low from 24N83W to 31N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the western Atlantic from 26N-31N between 69W-80W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the next few days. A tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours is high. See latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details or visit www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W S of 22N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm of the wave moving across the Leeward Islands. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W S of 19N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen along the northern portion of the wave, and in the SW Caribbean from 10N-12N between 81W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania/Senegal near 16N16W to the central sections of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W to 14N32W to 10N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 06N-09N between 15N-35W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving off the west African coast from 07N-14N and E of 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico is bringing continuous rounds of scattered moderate convection. This activity is noted from 25N-30N between 91W-94W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen just off the west coast of Florida from 26N-30N and E of 85W. Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts light anticyclonic winds in the eastern and central Gulf, with light to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thursday night. This will produce moderate to fresh south to southeast over the waters west of 90W and mainly light to gentle winds east of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is flaring up across the Windward Passage, mostly from 19N-20N between 73W-75W. Numerous strong convection, enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, is moving off the coast of Colombia into the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-77W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the central Caribbean, with light to moderate trades in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will gradually increase in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday. See the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Dorian. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level low continues to produce scattered thunderstorms across the central Atlantic from 24N-31N between 54W-66W. Another mid-level low over the central Atlantic is producing a small area of thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 46W-47W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 33N51W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle south- southeasterly winds in the W Atlantic. A weak area of low pressure over S Florida will track offshore the east-central coast of Florida on Sunday. This system will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and rough seas, over the waters west of 72W the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for tropical cyclone development of this system once it moves back over the Atlantic waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian will approach the southern waters, possibly as a hurricane, the middle of next week. $$ AKR