000 AXNT20 KNHC 111736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front over the NW Gulf will continue to quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region this evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas to 19 ft can be expected in the wake of the front today. An observation from Veracruz, Mexico indicated N winds of 30 kt gusting to 45 kt at 1548 UTC. Buoy 42055 also observed wave heights of 18 to 19 ft at 1350 UTC and 1450 UTC today. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu. Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue over the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front forecast to enter the basin this afternoon. Frequent gusts to gale-force out of the S and SW and building seas to 10 ft are expected behind the front today. Winds will turn to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale- force will continue this evening before winds slowly diminish to fresh to strong speeds on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 07N11W then extends westward to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 03N25W and then to 00N49W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 15W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. At 1200 UTC, a strong cold front extended from the Florida Big Bend region to Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gale-force northerly winds follow the front across much of the Gulf along with very rough seas up to 19 ft, strongest conditions occurring in the SW basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight to moderate winds are ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf. Aside from the wind and seas, scattered moderate convection is occurring ahead of the front in the Bay of Campeche, as well as near the Yucatan Channel and in the far eastern Gulf along the west coast of Florida. For the forecast, a Gale Warning remains in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico will exit the Gulf region this evening. Strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas follow the front. Expect the strongest winds, in the 35 to 40 kt range in the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, today. Seas should peak 18 or 19 ft with the strongest winds this afternoon. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. However, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and is fueling the development of scattered moderate convection from 17N to the Yucatan Channel and west of 84W. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High well north of the area and lower pressures over South America is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the eastern basin while gentle to moderate easterlies are occurring in the NW region. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the central and SW Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward over the central Atlantic through tonight allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist through Fri night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this evening, and become stationary from east-central Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Thu night while weakening. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish some on Fri, except in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage where fresh to strong NE winds will continue through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Strong high pressure anchored by a 1039 mb high over the NW Atlantic extends a broad ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge is being dissected by an elongated surface trough that extends from 31N48W to 09N55W, which is supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 18N to 30N between 45W and 56W, with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 09N to 18N between 50W and 58W. Aside from the convective activity, fresh to strong E winds and seas up to 10 ft are also ongoing either side of the trough between 40W and 65W. Otherwise, fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are over the NE Florida offshore waters, ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas dominate the Atlantic E of 40W. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds will continue to affect the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by early this afternoon. Frequent gusts to gale-force and rough seas are expected ahead of the front while minimal gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front through this evening. The front will reach from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and western tonight, become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba by Thu night, then gradually weaken into Fri. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the east. In addition, strong high pressure also follows the trough. This weather pattern will lead to the continuation of strong to near gale-force winds across most of the region through the weekend. $$ Adams