000 AXNT20 KNHC 031105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. Updated to Add Special Features Section ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Invest (AL95): A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves east- northeastward at about 10 kt, away from the coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for development after Monday. There is a medium chance of formation for the next 2 to 7 days. For more details, please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with axis near 69W from 20N southward into NW Venezuela, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis near 79W from 19N southward across the Panama/Colombia border into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed in the vicinity of this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then extends southwestward across 11N30W to 08N40W. The ITCZ curves westward from 08N40W through 07N49W to north of Guyana at 09N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 09N between 42W and 58W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous moderate to strong convection across the Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stalled front from SE Texas to southern Alabama and a surface trough extending from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over the north-central and NE Gulf. Similar convection is over the central Bay of Campeche being triggered by a surface trough. The remainder basin is under the influence of a weak 1019 mb high pressure centered over the NE Mexico offshore waters. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient in the basin is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, except moderate NE winds in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the northern Gulf region through at least Tue, generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Wind and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. A weak low pressure is forecast to persist along the front in the vicinity of SE Louisiana. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mon night through Thu night, as a trough develops there daily and drifts westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda High and associated ridge extending into the northern basin continue to support mainly fresh NE to E winds in the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades over the E basin and light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas are moderate basin-wide, except slight over the NW basin. See the tropical waves section above for information on convection and other details. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Wed night. The strongest winds will occur off the coast of Colombia, occasionally pulsing to near gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh trades over the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then continue through Thu night. Moderate or weaker winds over the NW Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds Mon night into Wed as a tropical wave moves across the W Caribbean and Central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stalled front over the Carolinas offshore waters extends across the NE Florida offshore waters and along the southern SE CONUS, generating scattered moderate convection over the NE Florida offshores. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N67W to 21N70W and is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico to 29N, between 60W and 72W. Another surface trough is in the north-central Atlantic from 31N46W to 23N47W generating scattered moderate convection N of 23N between 45W and 53W. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores-Bermuda Highs, which are supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the period, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas mainly N of 25N. The northern portion of a tropical wave, currently moving across the Dominican Republic, will move across the remainder Hispaniola this morning, reach the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and the SE Bahamas tonight. The pressure gradient between the wave and high pressure E of the Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trades S of 25N during this period. $$ Ramos