413 AXNT20 KNHC 031646 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 28W, extending from 03N to 16N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 13N between 25W and 30W. A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning. The axis of the wave extends from inland E Venezuela to 19N and is near 63W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 59W and 66W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 08N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 11N to 14N E of 20W, as well as from 05N to 11N between 30W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic SW across the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb high in the central to NW Gulf. This supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds, the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean away from areas of convection associated with the tropical wave near 63W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support scattered moderate convection over the waters offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect winds to reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean today due to a tropical wave with axis along 63W. The wave and its associated moisture will reach Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, extends from a 1017 mb low pressure near 31N73W to the SE FL coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and near the trough axis as well as across much of the central and northern Bahamas. Another surface trough runs from 31N66W to 29N60W to 30N56W, and is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection from 27N to 30N between 53W and 68W. An upper level low north of the Dominican Republic is also aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters N of the Dominican Republic and E of the Turks and Caicos. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the waters S of 20N. Fresh to locally strong trades are confirmed by a 1341 UTC scatterometer pass across areas from 10N to 15N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from a 1018 mb low pressure located north of area near 32N73W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. The trough will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. $$ Adams