000 AXNT20 KNHC 141023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Aug 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 16.3N 48.2W at 14/0900 UTC or 860 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 43W and 53W. Seas to 4 meters/12 feet extend 90 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, and 45 nm in the NW quadrant of Erin. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with more significant intensification possible Friday and Saturday. Erin is moving toward the west and a gradual west-northwestward motion is expected to commence night and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical- storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 25W and 30W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, from the Virgin Islands southward into Venezuela, moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N extending into Panama, moving westward at around 10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has dissipated overnight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 15N42W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 09N51W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 15N and between 36W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A tropical wave that has moved into the eastern Pacific induced broad low pressure formation over the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and early this morning this low pressure (Invest 98L) is along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is producing a few thunderstorms in the eastern Bay of Campeche along with some fresh NE winds. This low is forecast to move WNW across the SW Gulf over the next day or two, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. The system is forecast to to move inland over NE Mexico by late Fri, ending its chances for formation. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Convection previously in the northern Gulf in association with a weak upper level low has dissipated overnight. Overall, the basin id dominated by weak surface ridging, supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 ft or less, except locally 3 to 5 ft seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche, near the aforementioned low pressure. For the forecast, aside from Invest 98, gentle winds and slight seas are expected through the basin as weak high pressure dominates. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin. A land-breeze feature moved offshore eastern and central Cuba overnight, creating a band of southward moving convection that is impact waters between Cuba and Jamaica, as well as the Cayman Islands. The eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough along 10N is inducing scattered moderate convection offshore Panama. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail in the basin with a trade wind dominated regime in place. Moderate to fresh trades are present across most of the basin, with locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia, and gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are generally moderate, but slight in the NW basin, and locally rough offshore Colombia. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin is near 16.3N 48.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Erin will move to 16.8N 50.5W this afternoon, 17.6N 53.5W Fri morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 56.5W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Erin will be near 19.3N 59.4W Sat morning, 20.1N 62.0W Sat afternoon, and 21.0N 64.1W Sun morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to the north of Puerto Rico early Mon. Elsewhere, strong winds and rough seas will continue offshore Colombia and Venezuela today due to a tight pressure gradient, before diminishing tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin. A surface trough that extends from just south of Bermuda to just N of Hispaniola is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 29N between 58W to 64W. The remaining convection is confined to the deep tropics and is associated with Tropical Storm Erin, the monsoon trough, and a tropical wave, all described in sections above. The subtropical ridge is the main influence on the basins weather, providing for gentle winds for waters W of 60W as well as waters E of 60W and N of 25N. To the S of 25N extending to the monsoon trough and ITCZ, trade winds dominate, mainly moderate to fresh in strength, although a zone of strong trades exist north of Tropical Storm Erin, where the pressure gradient has been enhanced, from 18N to 23N between 42W and 52W. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft where the gentle winds exist and 5 to 7 ft where the moderate to fresh trades are ongoing. Rough seas are ongoing where the strong winds N of of Erin are present. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin is near 16.3N 48.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Erin will move to 16.8N 50.5W this afternoon, 17.6N 53.5W Fri morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 56.5W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Erin will be near 19.3N 59.4W Sat morning, 20.1N 62.0W Sat afternoon, and 21.0N 64.1W Sun morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to the north of Puerto Rico early Mon. Elsewhere W of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will result in gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas into the weekend. $$ Konarik