000 AXNT20 KNHC 221710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N13W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm N and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 17W and the coast of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 05W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high is centered over the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee. As a result, fair weather covers the entire Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NE Gulf, with fresh SE winds over portions of the SW Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through midweek before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW Gulf on Thu, pushing across the basin through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level zonal westerly flow covers the Caribbean. Moderate trade winds cover much of the basin, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands and also near the north coast of Panama. Typical isolated showers are noted along the sea breezes of portions of the Greater Antilles, with relatively quiet weather elsewhere. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean into Tue. The trade winds will slowly diminish thereafter as the high pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the waters near 32N69W to 26.5N72W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection along and within 150 nm east of the front from 25N-31N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-25N between 68W- 76W. In the central Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is near 25N50W. This is a cold core vertically stacked low, and the low is stronger in the mid to upper levels than it is at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the NE quadrant of the low from 24N-31N between 42W-50W. Due to the pressure gradient between the 1012 mb low and a 1034 mb high near 41N49W, winds near 25 kt are seen on the latest ASCAT pass north of 27N between 48W-58W. The stationary front from 32N69W to the central Bahamas will dissipate through early Tue, with remnants lingering through mid week. Looking ahead, the next cold front may move off northeast Florida by the end of the week into next weekend. Fresh NE swell will move into the waters north of the Leeward Islands tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen