336 AXNT20 KNHC 021040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Refer to the monsoon trough section for convection info. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 55W, south of 23N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level trough to it's west, and producing scattered moderate convection along the wave axis and N of 18N. Recent satellite scatterometer data has shown a very sharp surface trough with this wave, with fresh to strong winds from 15N to 21N between 47W and 53W and moderate seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N20W to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 31W-42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... In the wake of Tropical Depression Edouard, which continues to move N away from the area, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight seas are noted over most of the Gulf waters. Fresh NE winds prevail across the coastal waters NW and W portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low from the Cayman Islands to NW Cuba continues to combine with ample low level moisture moving in from the southeast to produce lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, western Haiti and the surrounding waters between the SE Bahamas and Jamaica. A surface trough extends from central Cuba to near 20N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms also prevail across SW portions and into the coastal waters of NE Nicaragua and Honduras, behind a tropical wave exiting Central America and moving into the eastern Tropical Pacific. Weak Bermuda High pressure north of the basin is promoting a modest pressure gradient to the south, and yielding moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and east-central Caribbean between 63W and 75W, per recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across these waters. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent W portions, except for moderate winds across the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the trough will continue moving WNW through Thu. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the next few days, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas remain over the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low to middle level trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and the SE Florida coastal waters. Meanwhile, another low level trough is moving across eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas, with abundant low level moisture behind it. These feature are combining to produce scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the NW Bahamas to just SW of Bermuda, and across the coastal waters of NE and central Cuba, that is being sustained by divergent flow aloft associated with an upper level low over the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection also continues across the near and offshore waters of Florida W of 78W. Moderate SE surface winds generally prevail from 70W to the Bahamas as well as S of 25N between 65W and 70W, were seas are 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores, anchored on a 1026 mb high near 34N33W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found S of 25N between 30W and 65W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are present north of 18N and east of 27W off Morocco and NW Mauritania and the Canary Islands and into the eastern Atlantic. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N of 25N. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will continue moving WNW through Thu. Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical moisture will continue to help sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 63W through today. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters. $$ ERA