000 AXNT20 KNHC 132353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwest N Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1037 mb high is centered over the Carolinas in the United States, and a stationary front extends from 31N68W through the central Bahamas and Cuba. Farther east, a surface trough extends northward from a 1008 mb low centered near 22N64W. Widespread fresh to strong NE winds are occurring surrounding these features, including areas offshore of Florida and through the Florida Straits, the Bahamas and most areas north of Cuba and Hispaniola. The trough will slowly progress westward this weekend, and the tightening pressure gradient will lead to the development of gale force winds north of 72N between 65W and 75W Sat into early Sun. Very rough seas will accompany these winds, with peak seas of 12 to 17 ft occurring north of 22N and to the west of 60W, including areas just offshore of Florida. Winds look to fall below gale force on Sun but remain fresh to strong through Mon. Seas will very slowly subside through the middle of next week, with peak seas falling below 12 ft by next Tue. Eastern N Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1018 mb low is centered near 34N30W. A broad swath of fresh to strong winds are occurring to the west and southwest of the center, impacting areas north of 21N and east of 45E. The low will strengthen this weekend, leading to gale force winds to the east of the center on Sat north of 26N and east of 30W, and on the western and northwestern side of the low by Sat afternoon, north of 30N and east of 37W. Very rough seas will accompany the winds, with peak seas of 12 to 20 ft occurring near the gale force winds. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft will expand as far south as 21N by Sat afternoon, and 18N by Sun afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish Sun night into Mon as the low lifts northeastward, and seas will slowly subside early next week. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES... The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of: the persistence of or the threat of cyclonic near gale-force winds, or gale-force winds, in the marine zones IRVING and METEOR, in the western sections of MADEIRA, in the western sections of CANARIAS, and in the northern sections of CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours that are after the initial 36-hour long forecast period. Please, refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 04N36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N between 27W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico, while a trough extends from central Cuba to northern Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring across central and eastern portions of the basin, with locally strong winds expanding westward through the Florida Straits into the southeastern Gulf and off the coast of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong SE return flow is noted in the northwestern Gulf off the coast of Texas. Locally rough seas to 8 ft are occurring through the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel, while seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE United States will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow morning. Starting tomorrow afternoon, winds will diminish some over the central and W Gulf but will maintain as fresh to strong NE to E winds for the E Gulf including the Florida Straits through Sun night. On Mon and Tue, conditions will be quiescent across the entire Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold front should reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from central Cuba through northern Honduras while ridging continues to build over the southeastern United States. This pattern is supporting a broad swath of fresh NE winds across central and western portions of the basin, with strong NE winds occurring in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, through the Windward Passage and Mona Passage, and offshore of Colombia. A trough is moving through the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds are noted near the axis. Locally rough seas to 8 ft are occurring through the Yucatan Channel and between Jamaica and Haiti, while seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across central and western portions of the Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail in the eastern basin. For the forecast, strong ridging over the SE United States will continue to force fresh to strong NE winds across the central and W Caribbean including through the Windward Passage until Sun night. A broad surface trough extending across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon will gradually move westward over the next few days. This trough will cause the pressure gradient to relax across most of the Caribbean and early next week the trades across the Caribbean should be only moderate or weaker. Looking ahead, a building ridge may enhance the trades over the central Caribbean starting on Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic and the Gale Warning in the Eastern Atlantic. A 1037 mb high is centered over the Carolinas in the United States, and a stationary from extends from 31N68W through the central Bahamas and Cuba. Farther east, a surface trough extends northward from a 1008 mb low centered near 22N64W. Widespread fresh to strong E to NE winds are occurring north of 20N because of the tight pressure gradient between these features. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are impacting most of the open waters north of 20N, with the highest seas of 12 to 14 ft occurring north of 23N between 52W and 68W. South of 20N, moderate trades prevail. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted. For the forecast, the stationary front that extends from just west of Bermuda to central Cuba should dissipate by tonight. A 1008 mb low near 22N64W sits along a north-south oriented trough. As the low/trough shifts westward, a large area of strong to near gale NE winds and very rough seas will set up over all of the waters west of 65W during the weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens between the low/trough and high pressure over the US mid- Atlantic waters, peak winds should reach gale force Sat and Sat night between the waters of the Bahamas and Bermuda. During Sun and Mon, conditions will gradually improve, and by Tue and Wed winds will be reduced moderate to fresh across the entire area. $$ ADAMS