000 AXNT20 KNHC 150938 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will support pulsing NE winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night from tonight through Fri night. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N and east of 30W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 05N52W. See the Tropical Waves section for details on the convection near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front draped across the southern and southeastern United States, from eastern Texas to off the Georgia coast. An east to west upper trough across this same area is combining with plenty of low level moisture and diurnal heating to support scattered moderate isolated strong convection across much of the northern Gulf waters north of 25N. The strongest convection is found in the E Gulf waters. Outside of convection, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and into the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas off Yucatan and in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the area through the week, enhancing showers and thunderstorms across the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south central Caribbean. The tight pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical Atlantic ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring in the remainder of the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough and abundant tropical moisture continue to support scattered moderate to strong convection covers the area between west of Jamaica and south of 20N. The strongest storms are along the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. These storms can produce gusty winds to near gale-force, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. For the forecast, pulsing NE winds to gale-force will develop across the waters N of Colombia each night from tonight through Fri night. Strong to near-gale trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through the remainder of the week and weekend. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic to the coast of Georgia, within 30N to 32N. Scattered showers are noted north of 27N and between 55W and 65W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present in those waters. Convection is suppressed elsewhere across much of the basin due to a large plume of Saharan dust and mid-latitude dry air. The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists across the basin, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 70W and 77W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 35W to the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are evident south of 10N and east of 27W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ ERA