000
WTPZ43 KNHC 062054
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025
 
Henriette continues along with little change in its structure. Like 
6 h ago, it is producing a relatively small area of deep convection, 
with cold cloud tops present mostly to the north of its low-level 
center. Recent scatterometer data showed winds just above 40 kt, 
which supports maintaining the intensity at 45 kt for this 
advisory, after accounting for undersampling. The scatterometer data 
was also helpful with identifying the exact position of Henriette's 
center, which was slightly south of previous estimates.
 
No significant change was made to the NHC track forecast outside a 
slight southward adjustment based on the initial position estimate 
in the short term. Henriette is moving westward to 
west-northwestward to the south of a deep ridge centered over the 
northern east Pacific. In a few days, a trough approaching from the 
west will turn Henriette toward the northwest, taking the tropical 
cyclone north of Hawaii. The various deterministic and global 
ensemble models are all in good agreement on the forecast, so 
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.
 
The tropical storm is still forecast to slowly weaken during the 
next few days while it moves over cool SSTs near 24C. However, once 
Henriette moves north of Hawaii, it will move over warmer waters. 
Upper-level difluent flow associated with a mid-latitude trough to 
the northwest may also provide additional support for 
intensification. As a result, most of the dynamical models forecast 
strengthening to occur near the end of the forecast period, and the 
NHC intensity forecast reflects this and is very similar to the 
previous advisory.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 18.1N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 18.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 18.6N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 22.0N 147.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 28.5N 156.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Santos/D. Zelinsky