041 WTPZ41 KNHC 200833 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Although modest northerly vertical wind shear continues to impart a slight tilt to the vortex, a well-established upper-level outflow over the southern semicircle has allowed the convective organization to improve over the past few hours. As a result, the low-level circulation center remains located near the northern edge of the deepest convection, which was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The scatterometer data also sampled peak surface winds of around 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, which is consistent with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. Based on the slightly improved satellite presentation and the recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is toward the west-northwest, or 290/10 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward in the wake of Elida, steering Fausto on a west-northwestward track during the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens and expands westward, the cyclone is expected to gradually slow and bend slightly more westward through Wednesday. Thereafter, Fausto should resume a west-northwestward motion while accelerating later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Although modest northerly shear is likely contributing to Fausto's asymmetric structure, the overall environment remains conducive for strengthening, with warm sea surface temperatures, deep moisture, and improving upper-level conditions. Steady strengthening is expected today, followed by a period of rapid intensification forecast over the next couple of days, with Fausto forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The cyclone is expected to reach its peak intensity in about 60 hours or around midweek. Thereafter, guidance suggest that decreasing upper-level divergence and a somewhat drier mid-level environment should induce a gradual weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope through about 60 h, then lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 12.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)