337 WTPZ41 KNHC 290237 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 900 PM CST Wed May 28 2025 The sprawling depression has shown a modest increase in deep convection closer to its low-level center in recent satellite images, but most of the fragmented convective bands remain farther away in the western semicircle. With little overall structural change, the latest satellite intensity estimates support holding the intensity at 30 kt. Overnight ASCAT wind data should provide more insight into the current intensity and wind field structure. The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (335/8 kt), but a more northwestward motion is expected on Thursday before an amplifying upper-level disturbance offshore Baja California induces a northward turn on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right this cycle, roughly in between the latest simple and corrected consensus aids. The depression should strengthen into a tropical storm during the next day or so within a weak vertical wind shear environment over warm waters. The amount of strengthening that occurs will depend on whether the broad cyclone can develop a tighter inner core before conditions become less favorable late this week. As the system gains latitude, strengthening shear and a drier, more stable airmass will disrupt its convective organization and result in weakening. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 72 h and dissipate before the end of the 5-day forecast period. Based on the latest track and size forecasts, tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to impact the coast of mainland Mexico or Baja California. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 12.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart