010 
WTNT42 KNHC 181443
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
 
Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl 
of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep 
convection near its center. Gabrielle's poor structure is due to 
ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of 
dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The 
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer 
data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest 
satellite intensity estimates.
 
Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a
couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its 
current intensity or weaken during that time.  It is even possible 
it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time.  
Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will 
move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next 
week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks 
north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low 
end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer 
to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5.
 
Gabrielle's more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now 
smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward 
motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should
persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by 
a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the 
north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early 
next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge 
and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track 
forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance's more 
westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours. 
Gabrielle's forward motion is a little faster as well, especially 
between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased 
steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge.
 
Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in
Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 20.3N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 21.1N  53.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 22.1N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 23.2N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 24.4N  59.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 25.9N  60.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 27.7N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 31.4N  61.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 36.5N  56.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake