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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Carlos, located about 1900 miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad 
trough of low pressure.  A low-pressure system is expected to 
develop along this trough within the next couple of days, and 
environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development 
of this disturbance later this week.  A tropical depression could 
form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 
to 10 mph, offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of 
Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over the 
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan during the next 
few days, and these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods 
and mud slides. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg